Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye has ignited fresh concerns about escalating conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo after ordering Burundian troops to launch an offensive aimed at dislodging M23 rebels from South Kivu.
This latest development underscores the deepening crisis in the region and has drawn reactions from key players, including Rwanda.
Burundi’s Military Maneuver in Eastern DRC
The decision follows a series of battlefield losses suffered by the Congolese army and its allies against the M23 rebels. Diplomatic sources reveal that on February 27, Ndayishimiye held a high-level security meeting in Bujumbura, reaffirming his commitment to countering M23 forces. However, his dual approach—publicly advocating for diplomacy while militarily engaging in the conflict—raises questions about the sincerity of his mediation efforts.
Since August 2023, Burundi has maintained a strong military presence in eastern DRC under a deal with Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi.
The agreement reportedly provides Ndayishimiye with $5,000 per soldier each month, fueling speculation over the financial incentives driving Burundi’s involvement. Despite these payments, reports indicate that Burundian soldiers receive only a small fraction—$70 for junior ranks and $100 for officers—leading to dissatisfaction among troops.
On February 23, Burundi reinforced its brigade in the Ruzizi Plain, deploying additional artillery units along the Vugizo border. The Burundian military has positioned surveillance drones and heavy artillery, including 120mm and 122mm guns, preparing for a major confrontation with M23.
Mounting Casualties and Internal Dissent
The ongoing conflict has taken a heavy toll on Burundian forces. Hundreds of Burundian soldiers have reportedly lost their lives in North Kivu over the past year, while others have refused to continue fighting. In January, 48 soldiers from the 20th Battalion declined deployment, resulting in their detention under mutiny charges.
Burundian military officials are reportedly divided over Ndayishimiye’s strategy, with some arguing that troop deployments are driven more by financial gain than national security. Commanders in Uvira have issued strict warnings, allegedly instructing soldiers that any attempt to flee across the Rusizi River back to Burundi would be met with execution.
Despite growing dissent and battlefield losses, Ndayishimiye remains steadfast in his offensive. His forces are now focused on retaking strategic locations, including Bukavu and Kavumu airport. However, within Burundian military ranks, fears of suffering heavy casualties in prolonged combat are rising.
Rwanda’s Reaction to Burundi’s Escalation
Rwanda has been closely monitoring the developments in eastern DRC, given its historical and geopolitical interests in the region.
The Government of Rwanda has consistently accused Burundi and DRC of using the conflict as a pretext to justify military action against Rwanda, despite Rwanda’s repeated denials of involvement with M23.
Following Ndayishimiye’s latest offensive order, Rwandan officials have expressed concern over the growing instability near its borders. Rwanda has emphasized that the continued militarization of the region by external forces undermines peace efforts and risks provoking wider regional tensions.
The Rwandan government has also pointed out the contradictions in Burundi’s stance—while Ndayishimiye participates in regional peace discussions, his military actions suggest an inclination toward prolonging the war rather than resolving it diplomatically.
Observers in Kigali believe that Burundi’s involvement in eastern DRC is not just about M23 but also about deep-rooted alliances and economic incentives. Some analysts argue that Burundi’s military engagement could create further justification for more aggressive security policies in the region, leading to a potential arms race between neighboring states.
Regional Calls for De-escalation
The worsening security situation in eastern DRC has prompted renewed appeals for peace from regional leaders.
During the February 8 summit of the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), leaders called for an immediate ceasefire and renewed diplomatic dialogue. However, with Burundian troops pressing ahead on the battlefield, peace prospects remain uncertain.
For now, the world watches as tensions rise, with the potential for further escalations involving other regional actors. The question remains—will diplomacy prevail, or is eastern DRC headed for a deeper conflict with wider implications for the Great Lakes region?
